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duction is expected to grow by 0.6 mb/d in 2026, led by the US, Brazil, and Canada. However, crude oil production among countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) experienced a notable decline in March. As highlighted in the April 2026 OPEC report, OECD commercial oil inventories stood at 2,826 mb in February, which is approximately 38.5 mb above the latest five-year average.In conclusion, the market remains sensitive to geopolitical shifts, though steady demand from emerging economies provides a solid floor for consumption throughout the year.Global seaborne crude oil shipments down 16% since start of the Iran warSince the beginning of the Iran war, global seaborne crude oil shipments have fallen 16% compared to the first nine weeks of 2026, according to Signal Ocean data. This represents a reduction of 7.6 million barrels per day (mbdp) to 38.4 mbpd. Coincidentally, shipments during the six weeks until mid-April have likewise been 16% lower than during the same period last year, according to Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.Before the Iran war, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) had estimated global oil production in 2026 at 79.9 mbpd. The 7.6 mbpd reduction in seaborne shipments means that 9.5% of the previously expected crude oil production is currently not reaching markets.The reduction in shipments has been driven by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Since the beginning of the war, tanker transits have reduced to a trickle, while other countries have not significantly increased exports.%u201cIn total, seaborne crude oil shipments from the Persian Gulf have fallen 12.7 mbpd during the past six weeks compared to the first nine weeks of 2026. The United Arab Emirates has managed to increase loadings from ports east of the Strait of Hormuz by 0.7 mbpd while Saudi Arabia has increased shipments from Yanbu in the Red Sea by 3.0 mbpd%u201d, states Niels Rasmussen.Adjusting for increased shipments from ports outside the Persian Gulf, crude oil shipments from the region have fallen 9.0 mbpd compared with earlier in the year. In total, other countries have managed to increase shipments by only 1.4 mbpd during the past six weeks compared with the first nine weeks of the year. Venezuela has increased shipments by 0.4 mbpd, while Russian Black Sea shipments are up by 0.8 mbpd. Combined, this accounts for 85% of the increased shipments from countries outside the Persian Gulf. India has been the main destination for the increased shipments from both areas.Since the two-week ceasefire was agreed between the US and Iran, transits through the Strait of Hormuz have failed to recover significantly. The US decision to block all traffic to and from Iranian ports, except humanitarian shipments, could lead to a further reduction in transits.%u201cEven if the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened, it may take a long time for crude oil and other energy shipments to return to previous volumes. According to reporting by the Financial Times, Saudi Arabia%u2019s production capacity has suffered considerable damage, while Qatar has lost almost one-fifth of its LNG output. At the same time, refinery capacity of about 2.4 mbpd is currently estimated to be offline%u201d, reports Niels Rasmussen.May 2026 327