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CRUDE OILIEA: Oil market outlook is highly uncertainThe International Energy Agency%u2019s (IEA) April 2026 Oil Market Report highlights a global oil market under considerable strain, driven primarily by geopolitical disruptions %u2014 particularly tensions affecting the Middle East and flows through the Strait of Hormuz. These disruptions have significantly constrained supply while simultaneously weakening demand, creating a highly volatile and fragile market environment.A key takeaway is the sharp downward revision in global oil demand. The IEA now expects demand to decline by around 80,000 barrels per day in 2026, marking a notable shift from earlier forecasts that anticipated growth. This reversal reflects what the report describes as %u201cdemand destruction%u201d, driven by elevated prices, reduced economic activity, and supply shortages. The second quarter of 2026 is projected to see a particularly pronounced decline, representing the steepest contraction since the COVID19 pandemic.On the supply side, the market has tightened significantly. Disruptions to exports %u2014 especially through critical shipping routes %u2014 have reduced global availability, while production gains elsewhere have not been sufficient to compensate. As a result, the previously anticipated supply surplus has narrowed considerably, bringing the market close to balance, or potentially into deficit.Refining activity is also under pressure. Global refinery throughput is expected to decline, reflecting both reduced crude availability and weaker product demand. Meanwhile, inventories are being drawn down rapidly, increasing concerns about energy security and price stability.Overall, the report emphasises that the oil market outlook remains highly uncertain and heavily dependent on geopolitical developments. Even small changes in the current situation could lead to significant fluctuations in supply, demand, and prices, making the near-term trajectory of the global energy system difficult to predict.Oil markets on edge: Geopolitical friction and rising demand fuel price surgeAccording to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) issued in April 2026, the global oil market is characterised by significant volatility. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) rose sharply in March, averaging $116.36 per barrel, driven primarily by geopolitical tensions and supply uncertainties.Regarding demand, the report maintains a growth forecast of 1.4 mbdp for 2026. While some transitory weakness is noted in the second quarter due to geopolitical developments, overall demand remains robust, particularly in non-OECD countries such as China and India, where industrial activity and transportation needs continue to rise.On the supply side, non-DoC liquids proWet bulk cargoesCommodities326 NX