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$100 oil could unlock 2.1 mbdp of additional South American crude supplyA sustained $100-per-barrel oil price could unlock up to 2.1 mbdp of additional crude supply across South America by the mid-2030s, according to new analysis by Rystad Energy. The finding comes as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced a sharp upward revision in our forecasted average 2026 oil price, from $60 Brent per barrel in January to $89 per barrel today. At current production levels, government revenues across South America are expected to rise by approximately $43 billion this year alone relative to our base case, reinforcing hydrocarbons%u2019 central role in public finance from Brasilia to Caracas. Across the region, Petrobras stands to gain the most: revenues are set to rise by $13.1 billion under the current $89 per barrel forecast versus January%u2019s $60 per barrel baseline.%u201cThe Middle East conflict has done more than spike oil prices %u2014 it has exposed how dangerously concentrated global supply chains are around the Strait of Hormuz. South America is now positioned as the world%u2019s most consequential source of incremental supply. The region offers scale, geologic quality, and relative political stability at exactly the moment that the world is shopping for alternatives%u201d, said Radhika Bansal, Senior Vice President, Oil and Gas Research at Rystad Energy.Offshore developments in Brazil, Guyana, and Suriname represent the most immediate source of upside. Fast-tracking projects across these markets could deliver more than 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) of additional production over the next decade, backed by approximately $33 billion in incremental greenfield capex through 2035. In Guyana, ExxonMobil is targeting up to 300,000 bpd from its Yellowtail project, which came online at an initial average production of 250,000 bpd, and Rystad Energy believes identical debottlenecking could unlock an additional 80,000 to 90,000 bpd across the Errea Wittu, Jaguar and Hammerhead fields. However, the largest upside is in earlier Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) for new projects rather than expansions of existing assets. Nevertheless, limited shipyard capacity for new Floating Production, Storage and Offloading Vessels (FPSOs) remains the binding constraint.Outside these three hubs, Venezuela has re-entered the global supply conversation following the January capture of President Nicol%u00e1s Maduro and declining availability of medium-to-heavy sour crude from the Middle East. Under a $100-per-barrel scenario, Rystad Energy estimates Venezuela could add 910,000 bpd by 2035, with 57% coming from existing fields in the eastern and western provinces, where medium crude operating costs run as low as $7 to $8 per barrel. ExxonMobil, whose CEO described Venezuela as %u201cuninvestable%u201d in January, has since deployed technical teams to assess opportunities. Shell signed preliminary agreements with Venezuelan state producer PDVSA in early March covering offshore gas and onshore exploration. All timelines remain contingent on sanctions relief and fiscal reform. The upside could be significantly higher if more players follow suit as investor confidence improves, driven by the presence of companies such as Chevron, Eni, Repsol and Shell. Increased participation in underdeveloped fields, particularly through partnerships with PDVSA, would further unlock additional production potential.Argentina%u2019s Vaca Muerta is the region%u2019s most dynamic growth story. Crude production is forecast to reach 1 mbpd by the end of the decade, up from current production of around 600,000 bpd and 1.5 mbpd by 2035 under the standard price strip. In a high-case scenario, production could reach 1.8 million bpd, at which point the Vaca Muerta Oil Sur (VMOS) pipeline becomes the binding constraint. China is set to emerge as the primary export destination, with consistent crude shipments beginning in 2027.LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS (LNG)Tightening global LNG market: The impact of Middle East disruptionsThe global LNG market is facing a period of significant tightening, primarily driven by the ongoing geopolitical volatility in the Persian Gulf and disruptions affecting maritime flows through the Strait of Hormuz. According to a recent analysis Under a $100-per-barrelscenario, Rystad Energy estimates Venezuelacould add 910,000 bpd by 2035, with 57% coming from existing fields inthe eastern and western provinces, where medium crude operating costs run as low as $7 to $8 per barrel.Commodities328 NX