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%u201cThis does not imply an abrupt displacement of Pilbara volumes%u201d, David Cachot noted. %u201cRather, it highlights where pressure will emerge first, as marginal tonnes become increasingly vulnerable in a more quality-sensitive market%u201d.The competitive dynamic with Brazil is more direct. Brazilian producers, particularly Vale, compete closely with Simandou on quality, prompting a shift toward greater portfolio flexibility.Short Range Outlook: Modest recovery expected in global steel marketsThe latest Short Range Outlook (SRO) published by the World Steel Association (worldsteel) highlights a turning point for global steel demand, signalling a transition from contraction to modest growth in 2026, followed by a stronger recovery in 2027.Global steel demand is projected to increase by 0.3% in 2026, reaching approximately 1.72 billion tonnes. This relatively subdued growth reflects ongoing structural and geopolitical challenges affecting key regions. However, a more pronounced expansion of 2.2% is expected in 2027, indicating improving market conditions and a gradual return to stability.A major factor shaping the outlook is the evolving situation in China, the world%u2019s largest steel consumer. Steel demand in China is expected to contract by 1.5% in 2026, although this represents a moderation in the rate of decline compared to previous years. The adjustment of the country%u2019s real estate sector is approaching its lowest point, while infrastructure investment and export-driven manufacturing are expected to provide partial support. By 2027, demand in China is forecast to stabilise, marking the end of a prolonged period of downward pressure.In contrast, India continues to demonstrate strong growth momentum and remains the fastest-growing major steel market globally. Demand in India is projected to rise by 7.4% in 2026 and accelerate further to 9.2% in 2027, driven by infrastructure expansion, industrial activity, and increasing consumption across key sectors.Developing economies, excluding China, are expected to experience slower growth in 2026, with demand increasing by 2.5%. This deceleration is largely attributed to a sharp contraction in the Middle East due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, as well as a normalisation of demand in Southeast Asia following a period of strong expansion. Nevertheless, these regions are anticipated to regain momentum in 2027, with growth projected to exceed 5%.EU adopts measures to protect steelmaking sectorThe European Commission welcomed the political agreement reached on Monday, 13 April, between the European Parliament and Council on the measure to protect the EU steelmaking sector against global overcapacity. This is a vital step towards ensuring the long-term viability of a strategic European industry.The new measure establishes tariff-free quotas of 18.3 million tonnes per year, with an out-of-quota duty set of 50% applied to 30 categories of steel products imported into the EU. It also introduces a Melt and Pour requirement to improve traceability and transparency of the EU steel supply chain. The measure will apply to imports from all countries, except those within the European Economic Area (EEA); however, EEA countries will still be subject to the Melt and Pour requirement. The agreed text reflects all the key elements of the Commission's proposal of 7 October 2025.According to the Commission, the measure is intended to address the negative trade-related effects of global steel overcapacity %u2014 projected to reach 721 million Commodities322 NX