Page 224 - ΝΑΥΤΙΚΑ ΧΡΟΝΙΚΑ - ΟΚΤΩΒΡΙΟΣ 2024

COMMODITIES

of the year, according to IEA, dramatically lower
than the growth of 2.3 mb/d recorded in 2023,
but close to its initial forecast. For the year as a
whole, global oil demand is on course to increase
by 900 kb/d in 2024 and 950 kb/d next year,
notes IEA.
The recent slowdown in China has seen its oil
consumption declining y/y for a fourth consec-
utive month in July, by 280 kb/d. This stands in
marked contrast to the 1 mb/d average pace of
growth over the preceding 12 months, or the post-
Covid surge of 1.5 mb/d in 2023. The country’s
oil demand is now set to expand by only 180 kb/d
in 2024, as the broad-based economic slowdown
and an accelerating substitution away from oil in
favour of alternative fuels weigh on consumption.
Surging EV sales are reducing road fuel demand
while the development of a vast national high-
speed rail network is restricting growth in domes-
tic air travel. The implications of the fundamental
shift in the Chinese economic outlook and rapid
changes to its vehicle fleet and transport modes
are discussed in detail in IEA’s recent reports, Oil
2024 and World Energy Outlook 2023.
Outside of China, oil demand growth is tepid at
best. Latest data for the United States show a
sharp decline in gasoline deliveries in June, fol-
lowing unexpected strength in May. As such,
gasoline use in the world’s largest oil consumer
declined y/y in five out of the first six months
of this year. Structural headwinds and anaemic
WET BULK economic growth mean that deliveries continue
to contract in a number of advanced economies.
CARGOES This could leave advanced economies’ oil use this
year nearly 2 mb/d below its pre-pandemic level.
With the steam seemingly running out of Chinese
CRUDE OIL oil demand growth, and only modest increases or
declines in most other countries, current trends
IEA: Global oil demand growth slows sharply reinforce our expectation that global demand will
from its post-pandemic rates plateau by the end of this decade.
The rapid decline in global oil demand growth in In an apparent effort to halt the precipitous slide
recent months, led by China, has fuelled a sharp in oil prices, in early September, Saudi Arabia and
sell-off in oil markets. Brent crude oil futures its OPEC+ allies announced that they would post-
have plunged from a high of more than $82/bbl pone by two months the start of their planned
in early August to a near three-year low at just unwinding of extra voluntary production cuts.
below $70/bbl on 11 September, despite hefty The delay gives the alliance some time to fur-
supply losses in Libya and continued crude oil ther evaluate demand prospects for next year,
inventory draws. as well as the impact of Libyan outages and its
Global oil demand growth is slowing sharply from plan to phase out additional curbs of 2.2 mb/d by
its post-pandemic rates, as already forecast in the the end of next year. But with non-OPEC+ sup-
IEA’s Oil Market Report for some time. Reported ply rising faster than overall demand – barring a
monthly data covering 80% of global oil demand prolonged stand-off in Libya – OPEC+ may be
during the first half of 2024 confirm the steep staring at a substantial surplus, even if its extra
decline in the rate of growth in oil consumption, curbs were to remain in place. In the context of
which the IEA has been projecting since its first a rapidly evolving market, reliable energy data
forecast for 2024 was published in June 2023. and unbiased market analysis will become more
Demand rose by 800 kb/d y/y over the first half important than ever.

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