Page 222 - ΝΑΥΤΙΚΑ ΧΡΟΝΙΚΑ - ΟΚΤΩΒΡΙΟΣ 2024
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COMMODITIES
Moreover, Chinese steel production, which is mate. Canada’s ending stocks were also raised
closely linked to iron ore demand, faces sig- 796.9 million substantially higher for 2021/22 and 2022/23
nificant risks. After two months of decline, tonnes the based on Statistics Canada revisions.
August saw a 21% year-on-year increase latest USDA's World wheat production has lowered by 1.4
in steel exports, but the long-term outlook estimate for million tonnes to 796.9 million, but remains
remains uncertain, as the possibility of a world wheat a record, as a reduction in the EU is only par-
fall in exports threatens to further depress production tially offset by higher production for Australia
demand. and Ukraine. The EU’s production has reduced
by 4.0 million tonnes to 124.0 million due to
Reduction in world steel production unfavourable harvest weather for France and
World crude steel production for the 71 coun- Germany. Australia’s production has increased
tries reporting to the World Steel Association by 2.0 million tonnes to 32.0 million due to
(worldsteel) was 144.8 million tonnes (Mt) in favourable conditions in Western Australia,
August 2024, a 6.5% decrease compared to New South Wales, and Queensland. Ukraine
August 2023. has increased by 0.7 million tonnes to 22.3
China produced 77.9 Mt in August 2024, down million based on harvest data released by the
10.4% compared to August 2023. India pro- Ministry of Agriculture.
duced 12.3 Mt, up 2.6%. Japan produced 6.9 Global consumption has increased by 0.9
Mt, down 3.9%. The United States produced million tonnes to 804.9 million, primarily on
7.0 Mt, up 0.7%. Russia is estimated to have higher feed and residual use for several coun-
produced 5.8 Mt, down 11.5%. South Korea tries more than offsetting a reduction for the
produced 5.5 Mt, down 2.2%. Germany pro- EU. World trade has increased by 1.7 million
duced 2.9 Mt, down 0.5%. Türkiye produced tonnes to 216.5 million as higher exports for
3.1 Mt, up 13.8%. Brazil produced 3.0 Mt, up Australia, Canada, and Ukraine more than off-
7.3%. Iran produced 1.4 Mt, down 9.9%. set a reduction for the EU. Projected 2024/25
global ending stocks are raised by 0.6 million
GRAINS tonnes to 257.2 million as increases for Can-
ada, Brazil, and Kazakhstan more than offset
Argentina: A mixed picture for soybean, reductions for Australia, Turkey, and several
wheat, and corn crops other countries.
The latest estimates from Buenos Aires Grain
Exchange show that the Argentine soybean SOYBEAN
crop could rise by 3% y/y to 52mt for the
2025 season. Similarly, wheat production International Grains Council: The latest sup-
could rise by 23% y/y to 18.6mt. The rise in ply and demand projections
production estimates is largely attributed Reflecting larger than anticipated ship-
to the favourable weather conditions in ments to key destinations in recent weeks,
the country. In contrast, corn production is the International Grains Council uprates its
expected to be around 47mt, down 5.1% y/y expectations for soybean trade in 2023/24
for the abovementioned period. by 2m t, to 175m, up by 1% y/y. There are few
changes to the outlook for 2024/25 supply
WHEAT and demand, with end-season inventories
maintained at 82m t (+19% y/y). Partly tied
The latest forecasts on global wheat produc- to an upward revision for the prior year, global
tion, consumption, and trade import demand is raised by 1m t m/m.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Further to gains in the previous year, global
recently published its monthly “World Agri- soybean output is predicted at a record
cultural Supply and Demand Estimates” report (+7%) in 2024/25 on tentative expectations
for September. The global wheat outlook for for heavy crops in the Americas, with con-
2024/25 is for larger supplies, consump- sumption also seen at a fresh peak amid
tion, trade, and ending stocks. Supplies are broad-based increases in key consuming
projected to increase by 1.5 million tonnes areas. Trade is projected to edge up to a
to 1,062.1 million as higher beginning stocks high of 178m t (+2%), the third consecutive
more than offset lower production. Beginning y/y expansion, with China’s arrivals broadly
stocks are raised primarily in Canada as Sta- matching the 2023/24 peak. On the exporter
tistics Canada 2023/24 ending stocks were side, dispatches by the US and Brazil are
significantly higher than USDA’s previous esti- anticipated to rise.
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