Page 54 - ΝΑΥΤΙΚΑ ΧΡΟΝΙΚΑ - ΜΑΙΟΣ 2023

ON THE SEAFRONT

these goods, it suffices to say that the goods trans- were in place. As a result, industrial activity has
ported through the Suez Canal last year reached increased, boosting coal demand. Coal supply has
1.27 billion tons. A few years ago, forecasts that the also improved as Indonesian coal exports have
Arctic route would take 20% of the shipping traffic not been restricted by an export ban which was in
away from Suez seemed overly optimistic. However, place in January 2022.
based on Rosatom’s data, Russian officials state “Indonesian seaborne coal exports are expected
that these goals are achievable. to surpass 170 million tonnes by the end of April,
Rosatom reports that Rosatomflot’s nuclear-pow- up 32% on the same period last year. The rise is
ered icebreaker fleet will provide support services partly due to improved economic conditions in
to 1,747 commercial voyages in 2024 and that by China, leading to increased energy demand. The
2035, their number will have increased to 3,895. surge in coal exports is supporting rates for Pan-
However, Russia’s ambitious plans for the North- amax and Supramax ships which transport 85% of
ern Passage depend on the progress of Novatek’s Indonesian coal. Earnings in both segments remain
production-related project and Rosneft’s Vostok higher than pre-COVID levels but have weakened
Oil project. At the same time, Russia’s shipbuilding significantly compared to 2022,” says Filipe Gou-
industry will play a vital role in the construction of veia, a shipping analyst at BIMCO.
ice-class ships that meet the requirements of the Indonesian coal exports account for 19% and 11% of
Northern Passage’s demanding environment. Rus- all cargo transported by Panamax and Supramax
sia’s Arctic fleet comprises 29 ice-class merchant ships, respectively. The higher coal volumes have
ships, while another 41 are under construction. helped offset weaker grain and minor bulk volumes.
Alexander Novak, the Deputy Prime Minister of However, due to shorter coal hauls, freight rates
Russia, recently stated that by 2030 the country’s for the two segments have still been impacted
Artic fleet will consist of 132 ice-class ships. negatively.
Higher demand for Indonesian coal has also been
THE KEY FACTORS THAT WILL IMPACT seen in other smaller economies in East and South-
THE FUTURE OF GAS CARRIERS east Asia. As a result, coal prices have started to
LNG and LPG carriers have caught the shipping cool from record high levels in 2022, improving its
industry’s interest in recent years, given their attractiveness in price-sensitive economies such as
short-term benefits in the decarbonisation drive the Philippines and Vietnam. Additionally, spillover
and the high demand for the cargo they carry. effects of China’s economic recovery have been
In this context, 46 Very Large and 20 Medium seen in South Korea. Chinese demand for South
Gas Carriers are expected to be delivered in Korean industrial goods has increased, leading to
2023, which may negatively affect the LPG car- higher South Korean coal imports.
rier market, according to Clarksons. In any event, India is the second largest destination for Indo-
environmental regulations are expected to lead nesian coal, but unlike other destinations, exports
to lower speeds. At the same time, demand for from Indonesia have slightly decreased so far
the commodities carried by LPGCs, especially this year. Although India’s total coal imports have
smaller sizes, will remain strong. In any event, increased, Indonesian coal face increased compe-
environmental regulations are expected to lead tition from Russian coal. Since voyages to India
to lower speeds. At the same time, demand for the from Russia are double the distance compared
commodities carried by LPGCs, especially smaller to those from Indonesia, ships are employed for
sizes, will remain strong. longer.
In terms of LNG carriers, in 2022, the orderbook “High temperatures in India are already causing
reached the record level of 182 vessels, while fleet record-high electricity demand. As the summer
capacity increased by 4.3%, according to Clark- approaches, electricity demand could further firm
sons. In addition, strong order rates should persist up in both India and China due to air condition-
in the coming years, but the same factors that ing. This, coupled with China’s economic recovery,
will benefit LPG carriers will also positively affect could ensure high coal exports from Indonesia
LNGCs’ supply-demand equilibrium. during the coming months,” says Gouveia.

SURGE IN INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS WEST TO EAST CONTAINER SHIFT IN
SUPPORTING PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX THE USA
FREIGHT RATES Over one million TEUs in import containers per year
During the first four months of 2023, Indonesian have shifted away from U.S. West Coast ports, with
coal exports to China had risen 65% y/y. The Chi- Gulf Coast ports being the biggest beneficiaries,
nese economy is performing significantly better according to a new report by Descartes Systems
than last year when strict COVID restrictions Group.

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