Page 190 - ΝΑΥΤΙΚΑ ΧΡΟΝΙΚΑ - ΜΑΙΟΣ 2023

COMMODITIES

this month by 3.9 million tonnes, further amplifying 1995/96. China’s imports are raised on strong
the anticipated rise above the opening levels to imports to date, particularly from Australia; China
5.3 per cent. Similar to coarse grains, this month’s is now the leading 2022/23 global wheat importer.
upward revision to wheat stocks is also concen- Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are low-
trated in major exporters, including Australia (due ered by 2.1 million tonnes to 265.1 million, the
to a higher production estimate), the European lowest since 2015/16. This month, India, the Phil-
Union (official balance revisions), and the Russian ippines, and Ukraine are projected to have lower
Federation (due to lower export expectations). stocks, more than offsetting increases for Syria,
Forecast at 469 million tonnes, world trade in the EU, and the United States.
cereals in 2022/23 is predicted to fall by 2.7 per
cent below its 2021/22 level following a 4.1-mil- SOYBEAN
lion-tonne downward revision this month. This
revision stems from a 6.1-million-tonne cut to the Steady growth in production
world coarse grain trade forecast for 2022/23, Reflecting adjustments for South American pro-
now pegged at 217 million tonnes, down 6.1 per ducers, the International Grains Council (IGC)
cent from 2021/22. Foreseen smaller maize sales forecasts that world soybean output will be
from Argentina and the United States of America, unchanged m/m. With a further downgrading of
both based on sluggish export pace, outweighed consumption, carryovers are raised by 2m t m/m,
larger than anticipated exports by Brazil. Along while trade is pegged marginally higher. The
with reduced purchases by several countries 2023/24 production outlook is uprated by 2m t,
on the import side, these revisions resulted in a with availabilities also boosted by higher opening
4.9-million-tonne cut this month to the global stocks figures – channelled to increased projec-
maize trade forecast, now pointing to a 3.0 per tions for uptake and inventories. Trade is predicted
cent decline from the 2021/22 level. Slow sales of fractionally higher m/m, at 174m t (+3%).
sorghum by the United States of America under- With a huge Brazilian crop more than offsetting
pinned a 1-million-tonne downward revision to the declines elsewhere, 2022/23 world soybean
global sorghum trade forecast, now 36 per cent output is forecast to expand by 4% y/y, notes the
below the 2021/22 level. By contrast, FAO’s global IGC. While record uptake is seen in some key con-
wheat trade forecast for 2022/23 has been raised sumers, a sharp contraction in Argentina – despite
this month by 1.6 million tonnes, mainly reflecting heavy imports – means that utilisation is placed
stronger than previously anticipated demand from steady y/y, at 366m t. Trade is forecast to expand
China and larger sales by Australia and Kazakh- solidly (+8% y/y). With gains predicted for the
stan, and is set to reach an all-time high of 199 three majors, a record world outturn is foreseen
million tonnes, up 1.9 per cent from 2021/22. in 2023/24, with total use projected at a new high
on gains in Asia and the Americas. Stock accumu-
WHEAT lation is anticipated, while trade could advance
to a new peak.
The latest projections on supply and demand
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently SUGAR
published its April ‘’World Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates’’ report. An overview of global supply
The global wheat outlook for 2022/23 is for The latest data from the Indian Sugar Mills Asso-
increased supplies, higher consumption, and ciation (ISMA) shows that cumulative domestic
reduced trade and stocks. Supplies are raised by sugar production fell 5.4% YoY to 31.1mt up to 15
0.7 million tonnes to 1,061.1 million, primarily on April. The group added that just 132 mills were
higher beginning stocks for Syria and increased still crushing cane by mid-April compared to 305
production for Ethiopia. Global consumption is mills at the same time last year. Sugar has seen
increased by 2.9 million tonnes to 796.1 million, significant strength so far this year, with prices up
mainly on higher food, seed, and industrial use more than 20% YTD. Indian and Thai sugar output
for India and increased feed and residual use for has fallen short of expectations, whilst El Nino
China and the EU. weather risks are raising concerns about these two
World trade is lowered by 1.2 million tonnes to important producers’ production next season. CS
212.7 million on reduced exports by the EU, Argen- Brazil is expected to produce its second-largest
tina, and Brazil, more than offsetting increases crop on record this season, which one would think
for Russia and Ukraine. China’s wheat imports are would help ease concerns. However, logistics out
raised by 2.0 million tonnes to 12.0 million, which of Brazil could be a problem, given that Brazil is
would be the highest imports for China since also dealing with record corn and soybean crops.

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