Page 186 - ΝΑΥΤΙΚΑ ΧΡΟΝΙΚΑ - ΜΑΙΟΣ 2023

From production to seaborne transport and consumption

COMMODITIES

Edited by:
Giannis Theodoropoulos AN INSIGHT INTO SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDS

DRY BULK

CARGOES

COAL

Australian government forecasts three-year peak in
exports
Global thermal coal trade is beyond its peak. That’s what
Australia’s Department of Industry, Science and Resources
has signalled in its March 2023 Resources and Energy Quar-
terly, which states that “the overall peak in global thermal
coal trade is likely to have passed”.
While actual thermal coal shipments have underperformed
recent forecasts, the March quarterly forecasts growth of
12% or 22 million tonnes (Mt) up to 2026. The department’s
most recent data shows that Australian thermal coal made up
17% of global trade in 2022, and this is forecast to increase
for another three years to 20% by 2026. Its outlook also
points to supply-side issues, such as persistent weather-re-
lated disruptions, curtailing 2022 exports and highlights
future growth markets for Australian coal.
Australia’s largest export coal markets – Japan, South Korea
and Taiwan (JKT) – are in decline. This market underpins most
Australian coal producers’ profits. However, according to
producers’ annual reports, it represents a massive concen-
tration risk, with over two-thirds of Australian coal going to
this market. The department’s latest outlook also notes that
in Japan, Australia’s largest single market, the government
“has released plans to close 100 coal plants over the next
seven years”.
Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are the only nations that
import the highest calorific value (CV) thermal coal (6,000
kcal/kg NAR), which makes up a significant chunk of Aus-
tralian exports. The outlook assumes, however, that other

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