Page 18 - ΝΑΥΤΙΚΑ ΧΡΟΝΙΚΑ - ΟΚΤΩΒΡΙΟΣ 2024

EDI Sociopolitical developments emerge as a factor that is

reshaping the status quo of shipping and trade.
The crisis in the Middle East is intensifying, having
escalated into a broader regional conflict. Following
Iran's missile strike on Israel, Lebanon’s Hezbollah
TOR launched an attack on the significant port city of
Haifa. Shipbroking sources point out that a widespread
war in the Middle East would have a considerable impact
on both the energy and the tanker market, although, at
the time of writing, fluctuations in oil prices and
IAL freight rates remain limited. However, if attacks on
Iran’s energy infrastructure persist, the consequences
for the oil market will be severe, and a potential
closure of the Strait of Hormuz would disrupt traditional
trading patterns. While it is reasonable to assume
that disruptions would push freight rates higher, the
cost to consumers and global economic growth would be
substantial. The impact on the developing world, in
particular, could be unpredictable, with domino effects
on other regions.
On the social front, the strike declared by 45,000 ILA
dockworkers on 1 October paralysed the operation of 36
ports along the US East Coast. However, the ILA and USMX
reached a wage agreement a few days later, bringing the
strike to an end. The fact that 54 containerships queued
outside US East Coast and Gulf of Mexico ports over a
three-day period, until the strike ended, demonstrates
the vulnerability of supply chains to social upheavals.
The agreement between the two parties will remain in
effect until 15 January 2025, when negotiations between
the two parties will resume to address other issues,
including the role of automation in port operations.
Amid the successive crises of recent years, maritime
trade is proven to be the “lifeblood” of international
trade and thus of global growth and prosperity. This
vital role has finally been recognised by policymakers
in Brussels, and European institutions are increasingly
acknowledging, albeit belatedly, the importance
of maritime and the broader blue economy for the
competitiveness of European industry. European Commission
President Ursula von der Leyen's initiative to expand
certain portfolios and create new ones, such as the
Mediterranean portfolio, indicates the direction the new
European Commission will take over the next five years.
Greece and Cyprus will play a critical role in this
new dimension of the European maritime industry, with
Apostolos Tzitzikostas appointed as the new Commissioner
for Sustainable Transport and Tourism, and Costas Kadis
as the new Commissioner for Fisheries and Oceans.
Sociopolitical developments are central to shaping the
industry’s fundamentals. Upcoming ones are already viewed
as unpredictable by most diplomatic analysts, creating
a sense of uncertainty, if not impatience, among all
maritime stakeholders.

Giannis Theodoropoulos

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