Page 70 - ΝΑΥΤΙΚΑ ΧΡΟΝΙΚΑ - SEPT 2025

On the seafront

to BIMCO’s analysis. As with a return
to normal Suez Canal routings, sailing
distances could shorten, and demand
growth could recede as trading patterns
could begin to transition back towards
the pre-war trade mix.
“During the first half of 2025, both
crude and product tanker year-on-year
demand growth, as well as rates and
prices development, have been negative.
We predict that demand will begin
to improve during the second half
of the year, but that product tanker
rates and prices could still fall behind
2024 levels due to high supply growth”,
Rasmussen added.
Dry bulk fleet composition
in first half of 2025
As of July 2025, the global dry bulk
fleet comprises nearly 13,000 vessels,
with a combined carrying capacity
of just over 1 billion DWT. The order-
duction, the IEA expects an oil surplus book currently represents around 9%
averaging 2.3 mbpd during the second of the active fleet, with approximately
half of 2025 and 3.0 mbpd during 2026, 270 vessels scheduled for delivery
peaking at 4.1 mbpd in the first quarter by year-end. Deliveries are expected
of 2026”, stated Niels Rasmussen, Chief to exceed 500 units in 2026 before falling
Shipping Analyst at BIMCO. to below 300 in 2027. Given the minimal
The US Energy Information Adminis- contracting activity so far this year,
tration (EIA) forecasts that the oil sur- the share of vessels on order is unlikely
plus could drive the price of Brent down to surpass 10% of the active fleet.
to an average of $63/barrel during
the second half of 2025 and $51/barrel Older ships dominate smaller segments
during 2026. The lower oil prices could Vessels’ age profile remains a defin-
help support demand, but may also ing factor, as there are still a lot of
encourage increased stock building, vessels above 20 years of age, mainly
resulting in increased demand for tankers. in the smaller vessel size segments.
However, extra product tanker demand The Handysize segment includes more
may be limited as refinery throughput than 500 vessels in the age category
is mostly expected to grow in coun- of over 20 years, accounting for 18%
tries that are currently net importers of the segment’s active fleet. In the
of refined products. Instead, BIMCO Supramax/Ultramax segment, which
has lowered its demand forecast includes Handymax vessels, there are
for product tankers compared to its pre- more than 600 vessels, accounting
vious report. Average sailing distances for about 15% of its active fleet. The
have shortened, partly due to an increase striking difference is seen in the Cape-
in the number of ships that sail through size segment, which appears to have
the Suez Canal instead of the Cape only 5 vessels older than 25 years, and
of Good Hope. 134 vessels aged between 20 and 24
When full access to the Red Sea and the years. However, there are still many
Suez Canal will resume remains uncer- Capesize vessels (including VLOCs)
tain, and no further shift in routings in the age categories of 10-14 years
has been included in BIMCO’s forecast. and 15-19 years, making up around
If current peace negotiations between 60% of the active Capesize fleet, which
Russia and Ukraine are successful, trade compete with the younger vessel age
with Russia could normalise, according categories in the freight market.

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