Page 230 - ΝΑΥΤΙΚΑ ΧΡΟΝΙΚΑ - SEPT 2025

Commodities

10% of US grain cargoes have been destined for China reduced supplies, higher consumption,
so far in 2025. lower trade, and reduced ending stocks.
Global wheat supplies are projected to
decrease by 0.4 million tonnes to 1,072
million, primarily due to reduced begin-
ning stocks in several countries and
lower production in Canada, Ukraine,
and Iran, which more than offset higher
production in Kazakhstan, the EU, Paki-
stan, and Russia. Global consumption is
expected to rise by 0.8 million tonnes to
810.6 million, mainly due to higher feed
and residual use in Kazakhstan and Thai-
land.
World trade is 1.3 million tonnes lower at
213.1 million on reduced exports for the
States, along with Ukraine, produced 6.7 ities. According to BIMCO’s data, US EU and Ukraine, only partially offset by
Mt, down by 8.8%. Finally, South Amer- soya bean exports fell by 10% y/y and higher exports for Russia and the United
ica produced 3.5 mt, an increase of 1.3%. sorghum exports by 89% y/y, as China States. Projected 2025/26 global ending
Top 10 steel-producing countries remains a dominant player in these stocks are lowered by 1.2 million tonnes
China produced 83.2 mt in June 2025, trades. Notably, 67% of global soya to 261.5 million, primarily due to reduc-
down by 9.2% compared to June 2024. bean shipments and 84% of sorghum tions in Canada and the EU.
India produced 13.6 mt, up by 13.3%. shipments are destined for China. By
Japan produced 6.7 mt, down by 4.4%. contrast, China accounts for a much IGC projects lower production
The US produced 6.9 mt, up by 4.6%. smaller share of global wheat (7%) and The International Grains Council’s (IGC)
Russia is estimated to have produced maize (5%) shipments. estimate of total world grain (wheat and
5.6 mt, down by 7.4%. South Korea “While the increase in volume was a coarse grains) production in 2025/26 is
produced 5.0 mt, down by 1.8%. Turkey positive for the dry bulk sector dur- lowered by 1 million tonnes m/m to 2,376
produced 2.9 mt, a decrease of 3.5%. ing the first half of 2025, tonne-mile mt. The 2025/26 total grain production
Germany produced 2.7 mt, down by demand still fell by 7% y/y, due to a 14% is forecast to be the largest ever, at 60
15.9%. Brazil produced 2.8 mt, down by decrease in average sailing distances. mt higher y/y, mainly because of antic-
0.5%. Iran is estimated to have produced The new destinations for US grains are, ipated bumper maize and wheat har-
2.2 mt, down by 15.5%. on average, closer to the US than China. vests.
Additionally, the recovery of US grain Forecast consumption growth of almost
GRAINS shipments via the Panama Canal fur- 2% is seen as slightly faster than aver-
ther shortened distances”, says Filipe age, including record food (up by 13
US grain shipments jump 9% despite Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at mt), feed (up by 16 mt), and industrial
Chinese tariffs BIMCO. (up by 7 mt) uses. End-season inven-
During the first half of 2025, US sea- “A seasonal uptick in grain shipments tories are projected to be more or less
borne grain shipments increased 9% y/y, is expected over the rest of the year fol- unchanged y/y, at 582 mt, including 140
driven by stronger maize exports. While lowing the US harvests. Tighter global mt for major exporters, representing a
an increase in import tariffs led to a 57% supplies of wheat and maize could 9% increase. World grains trade is pro-
y/y drop in volumes to China, the US has help sustain shipments. However, find- jected to climb by 2%, boosted mainly
been able to find alternative markets for ing alternative markets for soya beans by increased shipments to Asia.
most of its cargoes, says BIMCO. and sorghum may remain a challenge. Amid tentative expectations for larger
In March 2025, China introduced higher For soya beans in particular, China is southern hemisphere harvests, world
tariffs on US grain shipments, signif- expected to continue favouring Brazilian soybean production is projected to
icantly reducing the competitiveness cargoes, bolstered by Brazil’s growing increase by 1% y/y, reaching a peak of
of US cargoes. As a result, the share production”, claims Gouveia. 428 mt in 2025/26. While availabili-
of US grain cargoes destined for China ties should remain plentiful, a solid y/y
plunged from 26% in the first half of Latest forecasts on global wheat pro- gain in utilisation could see carryovers
2024 to just 10% in 2025. To compen- duction, consumption, and trade tighten, including among key export-
sate for the decline, the US increased its The US Department of Agriculture ers. After edging up in the current year,
shipments to other markets in Asia, Latin (USDA) recently published its monthly global import demand is likely to expand
America, and the Mediterranean. “World Agricultural Supply and Demand by 2% in 2025/26, as South American
Still, the shift in markets did not fully Estimates” report for July. The global suppliers take a bigger share of total
offset the losses in certain commod- wheat outlook for 2025/26 points to volumes.

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