Page 228 - ΝΑΥΤΙΚΑ ΧΡΟΝΙΚΑ - SEPT 2025

From production to seaborne transport & consumption
Commodities

Edited by: Giannis Theodoropoulos

Dry Bulk Cargoes

COAL remain broadly unchanged. As a result, it tration (EIA), in its latest “Short-Term
forecasts a slight increase in global coal Energy Outlook”, expects US coal-fired
Global coal demand to remain on a pla- demand in 2025, followed by a marginal power plants to remain relatively well-
teau in 2025 and 2026 decline in 2026, bringing demand to just stocked through the end of next year.
Global coal demand is likely to remain below 2024 levels. This outlook remains The EIA estimates that power plants in
broadly unchanged this year and the consistent with the forecast published the United States had 124 million short
next, despite short-term fluctuations in December in “Coal 2024”, the IEA’s tonnes of coal on-site at the end of June,
across several major markets in the first annual coal market report, with the main enough for them to consume that coal at
half of 2025, according to the Interna- changes of note since then including a rate of about 1.3 million short tonnes
tional Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest downward revisions for global economic per day, meaning they had about 93
update on the sector. growth and the significant energy policy days’ worth of fuel on-site. This metric,
The “Coal Mid-Year Update” shows that shift in favour of coal in the US. also called “days of burn”, is calculated
global coal demand increased to a new Over the whole of 2025, coal demand by dividing coal inventories held at
all-time high of around 8.8 billion tonnes in China is expected to decline slightly, power plants by a seasonal consumption
in 2024, up 1.5% from 2023, as rising by less than 1%. In the US, demand is rate. The EIA also forecasts that days of
consumption in China, India, Indonesia, expected to grow by around 7%, and in burn will range between about 90 and
and other emerging economies more the EU, it is set to decrease by nearly 2%. 120 days between now through the end
than offset declines in advanced econ- Global coal production is expected to of 2026, or about a month’s worth of
omies in Europe, North America, and rise to a new record in 2025, driven by coal more than power plants had on-site
Northeast Asia. continued output growth in China and between 2019 and 2022.
However, several of these trends India, which rely on coal for their energy Although coal inventories held at US
reversed in the first half of 2025, as security. However, the report anticipates power plants have fallen since early
demand declined in China and India due a decline in global coal production in 2024, coal consumption in the US elec-
to a weaker growth in electricity con- 2026, as high stock levels and lower tric power sector has also fallen since
sumption and strong increases in power prices begin to weigh on supply. then, so the supply measure of days of
generation from renewable sources. By Coal trade volumes, which rose steadily burn remains relatively high. Reflecting
contrast, coal use grew by around 10% in recent years, are projected to contract this supply condition, coal shipments to
in the United States, as robust growth in 2025 for the first time since the 2020 power plants – many of which occur by
in electricity demand combined with COVID-related downturn. This decline is rail – have declined in line with falling
higher natural gas prices drove up coal expected to continue into 2026, which demand.
consumption for power generation. In would mark the first consecutive two- The long-term decrease in US coal con-
the European Union, coal demand was year drop in global coal trade volumes sumption will temporarily reverse in
broadly flat, with lower industrial con- this century, according to IEA data. 2025 primarily because of rising electric-
sumption offsetting higher demand from ity demand and coal’s increased com-
electricity generation. EIA expects coal’s share of US elec- petitiveness in the electric power sector,
Despite these short-term variations, the tricity generation to increase to 17% which accounted for more than 90% of
report notes that the underlying struc- in 2025 US coal consumption in 2024. US natural
tural drivers of the world’s coal use The US Energy Information Adminis- gas prices last year were at historic lows,

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