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MARINE FUELS

free hydroxyl radicals (OH), leaving mon joke among hydrogen experts is
fewer of them available to combine that if you send hydrogen down a pipe-
with methane in the atmosphere and line, you can expect half of it to arrive at
reduce its warming potency. Thus, the other end). In any case, the outcome
methane remains potent and warms will be disastrous. A 10% assumed leak-
the atmosphere up to 110 times more age would result in a 0.4°C increase in
than CO does for longer periods of time global temperature. So, instead of the
2
(decades); b) It produces ozone in the current target of limiting temperature
troposphere, which increases global rise to 1.5°C, we may face an even more
warming; c) It produces water vapour severe and catastrophic increase.
in the stratosphere, which also results I look forward to the moment law-
in global warming. makers, the public, and environmental
Studies (1, 2, and others) suggest that, organisations recognise what scien-
in the short term, hydrogen warms the tists are now warning us about: we are
atmosphere 200 times more than CO , heading down the wrong path and at an
2
and in the long term, about 60 times enormous financial cost. The need to
more. But there is more: hydrogen leaks “do something” about global warming
during electrolysis, compression, liq- is indisputable. But pretending that this
uefaction and storage, from pipelines “something” is better than our current
and gas stations, as well as from ships, practices -as with LNG in the past, or
planes, trucks, and trains that use it. hydrogen and its derivatives now- is
However, hydrogen leaks – hydrogen possibly criminal. I can already foresee
The need to “do being the smallest molecule in the uni- the public and legislators’ future calls to
something” about verse, about eight times smaller than contain hydrogen leaks. To that, I would
global warming is methane – are practically impossible to say good luck!
indisputable. But contain. It can even permeate through I have always said that what we need
pretending that this the steel walls of pipes and containers. for real decarbonisation is new technol-
“something” is better Currently, hydrogen production is just ogies. For example, a new type of light
than our current 87 million tonnes per year, with nearly batteries with huge storage capacity
practices -as with all of it derived from natural gas. Tran- or a new type of nuclear power such as
LNG in the past, or sitioning to a global hydrogen economy fourth generation nuclear. Until then, it
hydrogen and its would require up to two billion tonnes seems confirmed once again that the
derivatives now- is annually by 2050. Experts estimate lesser of all evils may just be good-old
possibly criminal. leakage rates of about 5-10%, which diesel oil.
I believe to be conservative. The true
extent of possible leaks is unknown; it
could be 20% or even higher (a com-

This article was originally published in Physics, 22, 9349–9368, 20 July 2022,
Greek in the October 2023 issue of Naftika https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9349-2022
Chronika and has now been updated. The
international shipping press (Lloyd’s List
and Tradewinds) refused publication. 2 Forster, P., Storelvmo, T., Armour, K.,
Collins, W., Dufresne, J. L., Frame, D.,
Lunt, D. J., Mauritsen, T., Palmer, M. D.,
Update 4/28/2024: The Environmental Watanabe, M., Wild, M., and Zhang, H.: The
Defense Fund (EDF), the NGO that funded Earth’s energy budget, climate feedbacks,
Study 1, submitted its findings to the IMO and climate sensitivity, in: Climate
(submission MEPC 81/7/6), but apparently Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis,
went unnoticed. Accepting scientific data Contribution of Working Group I to the
that challenges the prevailing “green” Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergov-
fuel narrative may take time. However, ernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cam-
there is no such time to spare. Meanwhile, bridge University Press, 923–1054, 2021.
the legislative train does not seem to https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (last
stop, as decisions have already been made, access: 11 July 2022)
even if they are wrong. Will we keep pre-
tending they are right?
3 Atmospheric implications of increased
1 “Climate consequences of hydrogen emis- Hydrogen use, Nicola Warwick, Paul Grif-
sions”, Ilissa B. Ocko and Steven P. fiths, James Keeble, Alexander Archibald,
Hamburg, Environmental Defense Fund, New John Pyle, University of Cambridge and
York, NY, USA, Atmospheric Chemistry and NCAS and Keith Shine, University of Read-
ing, April 2022

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