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How is the Middle East crisis reshaping global trade flows, and what structural impact do you see this having on freight markets in the medium term?The de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is likely to have a major impact on global trade flows across all energy products. In the spot market, Asian refiners are sourcing crude oil from the Atlantic Basin as a replacement for the shortage in Arabian Gulf supply. At the same time, they are holding onto barrels of refined products they would have otherwise shipped to the West, leaving Europe vulnerable to shortages if the situation persists.Stepping back, there are several developments to watch for. First, a major restocking of strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) and other commercial storage is likely to occur at the end of the conflict. This should boost overall export demand compared with our previous forecasts. Second, Asian refiners will possibly try to diversify their supply sources, which is likely to support longer shipping routes as they seek a broader mix of crude sources from around the world. Investment in new infrastructure that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz is also to be expected, likely expanding the capacity of the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia, as well as any pipelines to Fujairah.The scale of damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East is likely to be significant, and some of the subsequent disruption will take months to unwind. Once there is a return to normal transits, this is likely to support stronger market conditions in the second half of the year.On the bunkering side, there is clearly a severe product shortage in Asia, which is already having an impact on the shipping industry. The relaxation of sanctions has helped increase the availability of HSFO and VLSFO, but if transits remain at these levels through early summer, we will see stored supplies in some parts of the world, forcing demand destruction. This will start with non-essential fuel users %u2014 such as lower-value shipping routes %u2014 cutting back, but will eventually extend into more core segments of the market.Redrawing the global trade map: Shipping in the wake of Middle East volatilityThe maritime industry currently finds itself at a critical crossroads, balancing immediate geopolitical shocks with the long-term necessity of a green transition. In this interview with Naftika Chronika, Andrea Olivi discusses the profound shifts reshaping global trade flows in the wake of the Middle East crisis. Beyond the immediate crisis, he talks about the evolving regulatory landscape, contrasting the EU%u2019s ambitious decarbonisation frameworks with global standards. Furthermore, Olivi analyses how digitalisation enhances fleet efficiency without replacing physical logistics, while outlining a pragmatic path for alternative fuels within a sustainable and profitable strategy.Andrea Olivi,Global Head of Shipping at Trafigura, discusses with Giannis TheodoropoulosMay 2026 69